Thursday, 16 May 2013

When an economist goes to the field – and yes it does happen!



By Alia Aghajanian
This post is mainly in response to the reactions of surprise and suspicion when talking to colleagues about my fieldwork. Yes, I am an economist, and yes, I have gone to the field!

Most PhD students at IDS spend the better half of the second year of their PhD programme conducting primary research with real research participants. This research can take the form of life history interviews, short focus group discussions, participant observation, ethnographic research and so on. So how does a research project that relies on numbers, rather than people, involve fieldwork[1]? Hopefully, this post will shed some light on what happens when an economist goes to the field, by describing the field data collection conducted for my PhD thesis.

Two months ago I conducted a household survey amongst residents of a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon (Nahr el Bared) who had been displaced to various locations throughout the North of Lebanon and beyond, due to a conflict that destroyed the camp in 2007. The idea behind the research is to evaluate the consequences of returning home after conflict-induced displacement – in terms of social and economic reintegration. While some qualitative research has shown that formerly displaced persons often face difficulties upon returning home[2], the quantitative literature is yet to address this question in a rigorous manner.

Once I had finessed my research questions, I set to work designing my household survey. Palestinian refugees in Lebanon are registered with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), and after the conflict and the initiation of the reconstruction of the camp, UNRWA created a database of displaced refugees (including their addresses) which is updated on a quarterly basis. Using this database I was able to create my sample, and I aimed for 600 households – around 10% of the population. In order to guarantee that the sample collected was representative of the geographical distribution of the population under study, I set the sample size in each geographical area equal to 10% of its actual population size.

After designing the sample I started work on the questionnaire. Many months were spent developing this, as I drew from various different standardised questionnaires and then adapted the questions to suit my context. Particularly, I was interested in measuring social capital, and after an extensive literature review I developed a relatively large range of questions that aimed to capture different elements of social capital, from trust to social interactions. Unfortunately, a household survey does not allow the luxury of changing the questionnaire once data collection starts, so many run-throughs with friends, supervisors, and finally members of the data collection team ensured that it was as perfect as possible (inevitably, in hindsight there are many questions I wish I had also included!).

Planning the logistics of the actual data collection came next. As much as I would have liked to interview 600 households myself, time would not allow it[3]. So I needed to hire a team that I could trust, and more importantly that the research participants could trust. In an ideal world, data collectors would be complete strangers to the respondents, to ensure confidentiality and unbiased responses. On the other hand, the refugee camps that we were conducting research in were not safe environments, and can often turn hostile. I did not think it a good idea to bring in a team of strangers to the field sites and draw unnecessary attention to ourselves. For this reason, data collectors were local residents of the camps in the sample, but were assigned to sectors in the camp as far as possible from the sector that they lived in.

Prior to fieldwork starting we set up meetings with relevant persons in the field site communities (this included the camp services officers, leaders of political parties, and members of the camps’ popular committees) to obtain the necessary permissions and explain the aim of the household survey. I was questioned on the importance of my research, what new information my research could provide, and what policy implications my research could have, as there has already been quite a lot of research conducted on the residents of Nahr el-Bared[4]. A few days prior to fieldwork, these meetings were a reminder of the commitment I was making to the research participants. While no direct policy changes would necessarily result from my research (a point made clear to consenting participants), I made a commitment to understand how these households had been affected by the conflict, subsequent displacement, and return. As well as to do my best to communicate these findings not only to the academic world, I will try to disseminate my findings to policy makers who are concerned (or should be concerned) with the reintegration process of refugees and displaced persons around the world.

With the necessary permissions granted, we arrived to the field with a specific target of households to be interviewed for each field site. But we still needed to ensure that households were selected randomly within these areas. In areas where displaced households were clustered together, data collectors used what is known as the “right-hand-rule”. This means that after the first interview was completed, the data collector crossed eight[5] consecutive households on his/her right-hand path and interviewed the eighth household. Whenever data collectors reached an intersection, they took the lane on their right hand side and completed the route by turning to their right until they reached the main route again. In this way all areas of the camp were covered, and we ensured that all households had an equal probability of being selected. However, in areas where households were spread apart, households were tracked using addresses, phone numbers, and the key-contacts of the field supervisors[6].

As it was important that these protocols were followed correctly and consistently, and that data collectors were not interviewing the first household they could find (or worse, sitting under a tree and completing the required number of questionnaires), the field supervisors, coordinators and I conducted random checks on the data collectors and asked them to retrace their path with us.

Data collectors interviewed households using tablet PCs programmed with a structured questionnaire (which in turn required many weeks of testing!). This meant that at the end of each day I was able to extract all the data collected and convert it to an excel file. To the annoyance of the data collectors, I was then able to check for any inconsistencies and clear this up with them the next morning. Some examples of these inconsistencies are the sex of an individual not reflecting his/her name, or a 50 year old woman being the mother to a 45 year old man. If I was not able to clear these issues up with the data collectors, they went back to the household for further clarification.

In addition to making data validation easier, there was an all round consensus among the team that the tablet PCs were a great bonus to the data collection. Many questions in the questionnaire were related to the responses of previous questions, but luckily there was no need for data collectors to navigate through these difficult and complex skip codes, as the programme[7] used automatically calculated these. Inevitable errors that occur during data entry were minimised, as responses were only entered once. In addition, I was able to observe the data in real time, which was quite satisfactory after a long hard day of data collection. Also, rather than finding the tablet PCs intimidating, respondents were initially only interested in the tablets, and at this point data collectors found it much easier introducing themselves and the research project once their attention had been caught. Even during training, data collectors were eager to learn about this new and exciting technology, practicing the questionnaire amongst themselves and then later at home with their families.

After two weeks of intense data collection, we were done! I now have a dataset of 590[8] households ready to analyse. This dataset will allow me to describe certain demographic characteristics of the sample, being representative of the larger population. For example, I will be able to estimate the employment rates and education levels of the population under study, as well as observe community levels of social capital, cohesion, and integration. Collecting a representative and unbiased sample allows me to make scientific conclusions, such as whether the average literacy rate is statistically different for females and males. More importantly, I hope to estimate causal relationships and their statistical significance: For example, what is the effect of returning compared to prolonged displacement on levels of trust in neighbours, and is this effect significant?

While my sample is relatively large, it can be argued that I will not have as much depth to my research that qualitative research allows. Although a properly collected large dataset increases the representativeness and the unbiased position of the participants in the research, more focused research can provide insight and information which is not necessarily limited to a structured questionnaire. While I acknowledge this trade-off between depth and breadth, I still believe there is room for these two methods to complement each other, rather than to conveniently ignore and debase the other. In fact, much of the qualitative research on return migration and return after displacement has guided the hypotheses that I will empirically test with the data collected.

Unfortunately not many economists get to collect their own primary data. Organizing a household survey can be expensive and time-consuming. Researchers need to think twice before conducting a large survey. Is it worth the required resources? Is it worth the time of the respondents? And can another existing dataset answer the research questions just as effectively? Chris Blattman writes an interesting blog on the questions researchers (and I think this is especially relevant for quantitative researchers) should ask themselves before going to the field. On the other hand, collecting your own data can be a very rewarding experience, attaching human faces to what can otherwise be just numbers.


[1] In fact, most applied analysis conducted by micro-economists involves secondary datasets that were initially collected from the field. This blog gives an example of the collection of these kinds of datasets.
[2] Often refugees and internally displaced persons are away for so long that “home” has become a foreign environment. See Black, Richard and Saskia Gent. 2006. "Sustainable Return in Post-Conflict Contexts." International Migration, 44(3), 15-38.
[3] The role that I played during the fieldwork was that of a field supervisor, assigning tasks for each member of the team at the beginning of the day and checking up on the data collection process and resulting data throughout the day - and unfortunately long into the night.
[4] Having said that, during one meeting the relevant person seemed to be more interested in an upcoming Premier League football match than the relevance of my household survey.
[5] This number was calculated by dividing the number of households in the sample by the total population, and allowing a margin for refusals and unavailable households. Data collectors asked neighbours or directly knocked on the doors of dwellings to enquire as to whether households were originally from Nahr el Bared camp. This was because Nahr el Bared families are living alongside other Palestinian families and more recently alongside Syrian refugees, and we did not want the number of non-Nahr el Bared households to inflate the count number. If households were not from Nahr el-Bared then the household was not included in the count.
[6] Before heading to the field the supervisors met with various key informants, such as the Palestinian popular committee for relevant camps, the relevant camp services officer, local NGOs who had provided aid to displaced persons, the national Palestinian scouts group, notable media persons, and notables of Palestinian political parties.
[7] I used ODK, an open source programme developed by researchers at the University of Washington.
[8] This is slightly lower than the target as there was a difficulty in tracing certain households. While this is a very small “attrition rate”, I will still try to include robustness checks later on in my analysis to correct for this.

Thursday, 2 May 2013

Social transfers: all good for children?

by Keetie Roelen
The positive impact of social protection programmes is now widely acknowledged. They help to increase household income, smooth consumption and protect against shocks. With respect to children, social protection has been found to increase school enrolment and attendance rates, improve nutritional outcomes and reduce child labour. Given these positive impacts, interest in the role of social protection is now also widening to other aspects of children’s lives. Momentum is growing around questions of the potential impact of social protection programmes on child protection outcomes. Last week, UNICEF IRC Office of Research published a paper on the link between social transfers and child protection, a draft version of which was presented and discussed during an expert meeting in Florence last month.

A notable observation from the paper and discussions at the expert meeting refers to the lack of knowledge about the linkages between social transfers and child protection outcomes. Whilst we know quite a lot about the effect of transfers on children’s education and health, few evaluations have considered the effect of programmes on issues of child protection, which would include early marriage, family separation, violence, abuse and neglect. This thin evidence base is not limited to social transfers only; in general we know little about the linkages between social protection and child protection.

The lack of knowledge can be attributed to a number of factors. Firstly, issues of child protection are largely outside of the ‘theory of change’ of social protection programmes. Whilst many programmes include the increase in school enrolment rates and immunization coverage in their objectives, few spell out the reduction of early marriage and prevention of loss of parental care, for example, as explicit goals. Secondly, the effect of social protection on child protection is much harder to observe and study. Child protection violations are much less visible to outsiders, easier to hide and sensitive to investigate. Finally, the linkages between social protection and child protection outcomes are everything but straightforward. Whilst improved nutritional outcomes or school attendance will be highly correlated with an increase in household income through social transfers, the link between household wealth and child protection is much more tenuous.

As such, evidence on the link between social protection and child protection remains thin on the ground. However, the modest information that is available suggests that social protection programmes can far-reaching impacts in terms of child protection – both positive and negative, and that there is a dire need for more investigation in this area.

On the positive side, social protection has the potential reduce child protection violations, largely through its reduction of poverty. Improved household income can prevent the loss of parental care and family separation by avoiding parents having to migrate or leaving their children in the care of others. Poverty reduction is also likely to reduce stress levels in the household, thereby improving the quality of care for children. The provision of transfers can also work as a positive incentive for foster or kinship carers, particularly in areas with many orphans.

That said, the provision of social protection can also have negative impacts in terms of child protection, mostly through perverse incentives or due to unintended side effects of programme implementation. For example The incentivisation of foster care through social transfers can result in low-quality care and ‘commodification’ of children when unaccompanied by careful screening and training of carers. Unintended side effects can result from trying to comply with conditions in CCTs (such as overfeeding or keeping a child underweight when having to meet certain weight requirements) or the requirement to work in public works programmes (including the lack of child care or children having to substitute for domestic or farm work).

There is no doubt that social protection holds great potential for improving children’s lives. However, more information is needed about programmes’ impact on outcomes outside of the more easily observable ones, such as education, health and nutrition. It has been argued before that child-sensitive social protection needs a nuanced perspective, rather than be based on assumptions about we think works and does not work for children (Roelen and Sabates-Wheeler 2012), and this also holds with respect to the link between social transfers and child protection outcomes. An important step in gaining better insights into this link is not merely to do more research, but to do research that goes beyond the parameters as set by social transfer programmes’ ‘theories of change’. This requires an acknowledgement that child protection outcomes are not only shaped by the interventions directly (i.e. the provision of cash or the condition of school attendance or regular health check-ups) but also, or maybe primarily, by the design and implementation features of those interventions. As long as the potential impact, foreseen and unforeseen, of these features is not adequately considered, the picture about the link between social transfer programmes and child protection will remain incomplete and partial, and programmes may cause as much harm to children as they do good.

References:
Barrientos, A., Byrne, J., Villa, J.M. and Pena, P. (2013) Social Transfers and Child Protection. Office of Research  Working Paper WP-2013-05. Florence: UNICEF IRC Office of Research.

Roelen, K. and Sabates-Wheeler, R. (2012) A child sensitive approach to social protection: serving practical and strategic needs. Journal of Poverty and Social Justice, 20:3, pp. 309-324.

Tuesday, 16 April 2013

The Fall and Rise of Industrial Policy

By Roger Williamson

I recently attended an exciting event at the LSE launching a book on Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First Century.

We were told that industrial policy used to be a four letter word at the World Bank, according to Joseph Stiglitz – former Chief Economist. But now the tide is turning. On the day of the book launch, the Financial Times had an editorial urging the UK government to have a “more activist approach towards industrial policy” if George Osborne is serious about manufacturing and his “march of the makers”.

In the new book, Weiss defines the key term thus: “…industrial policy is used here in the sense of policy interventions designed to affect the allocation resources in favour of industry (principally manufacturing) as distinct from other sectors.” (Weiss p. 393). As Rodrik stresses – the “how” is harder than the “why” (see Acs and Naude p 388)

Hosted by Professor James Putzel on behalf of the LSE’s International Development Department, the session had a strong line up of the book’s three editors, Wim Naude, Adam Szirmai (both Maastricht and UNU-MERIT) and Ludovico Alcorta (UNIDO) as well as the long-term industry editor of the Financial Times, Peter Marsh. I finished the two hour session with twenty pages of scribbled notes and a head full of ideas.

Naude stressed that the challenges of this century are not those of the past – countries looking to industrialize in the 21st century face new challenges and a more crowded field. He gave us 12 reasons why it is important to make things “you can drop on your foot” (The Economist) i.e. real goods – stuff you can use. Quite simply, people need things which don’t come straight from nature in order to stay alive and enjoy life. Manufacturing provides productivity gains and the benefits of agglomeration and specialization. Especially now we have reached “The Urban Century” (see the Rockefeller Foundation publication on the subject) manufacturing will be more, not less, important. He also gave a taste of the chapters from the book.

Szirmai provided us with some solid facts and figures. In the three decades from 1980, developing world share of manufacturing has risen from 14% to 42% - but most of that growth has been in China and the four Asian tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan). His chapter argues the “case for manufacturing” as the primary engine of growth. There is an empirical correlation between “the degree of industrialization and the levels of per capita income in developing countries”. Productivity is higher in manufacturing than agriculture. There is a “structural change bonus” in moving labour from agriculture to manufacturing, and a “structural change burden” in a shift from manufacturing to services. Manufacturing offers particular “opportunities for capital accumulation” and economies of scale.

Furthermore there are opportunities for “embodied and disembodied technological progress”; linkages and spillover effects are stronger than in agriculture or mining. “As per-capita income rises, the share of agricultural expenditures in total expenditures declines and the share of expenditures ion manufactured goods increases ( Engel’s law).” (pp. 54-5) In the chapter Szirmai examines and comments on these eight elements. In his brief statement at the meeting, Szirmai drew out some implications of the new 21st century situation. Distributed production offers chances to get a niche in one sector – but there is a danger of getting stuck there  – e.g. Mexico and assembly activities. There is shrinking policy space – but one issue which could be re-introduced is non-reciprocity which was allowed in GATT but not under the WTO rules. Jobless growth remains a threat – even rapid industrialization will not absorb enough labour. Keeping abreast of technological advances and dealing with the additional burden of climate change make industrialization harder in the 21st century. His conclusion at the meeting: “Industrial policy is more urgent than ever, but it may be more difficult to implement than before”.

Acorta’s presentation provided the title for this blog. He also introduced the Stiglitz quote above and pointed out that President Obama is now into industrial policy (in response to the crisis in the auto industry) and that Germany has long done industrial policy better than most. In UNIDO’s view, every country needs a long-term strategy vis-à-vis the world economy to enable it to structure its industry and achieve better prospects for it. This should not be old-style state industry, or long-term unsustainable subsidies. Local differences matter, so no “one size fits all”. Industrial policy must be both supporting and challenging – subsidies must generate returns and have built-in sunset clauses. Policy effectiveness and sustainability are key – hence the need for feasibility studies. Industrial policy must be evidence-based, with feedback loops. It must also be environmentally sustainable. There are still major inefficiencies (for example in energy use) within companies – life-cycle analysis is essential. There are opportunities for green diversification – for example, the emerging South African solar industry. Perhaps in middle income countries, especially the BRICS, there are opportunities for R&D subsidies for green innovation. Green procurement can also be more widely used.

Peter Marsh told us a bit about his background – his chemistry student’s fascination with the periodic table, 180 elements of which 100 are readily available.  These have been combined into literally billions of objects. He boiled manufacturing down to a neat formula – as the combining of “materials + energy + ideas”. With manufacturing capacity goes up and prices go down. Particularly in the service sector, labour productivity is a restraint – as Baumol pointed out, it still takes four people to play a Beethoven string quartet (the answer of the Reduced Shakespeare Company may be fun, but it’s not universally applicable). In an entertaining, erudite and well-illustrated presentation he laid out some of the characteristics of what he calls the “fifth industrial revolution”.  (Two asides - many in Africa must be thinking that to be allowed one would be nice; and if you want to know what the other four are – get the book) Hallmarks of this 5th stage are: blended technologies, mass personalization/customization; a focus on specialisation and niches; environmental stewardship; the service dimension; global networking; cluster dynamics and the new geography of production. Peter Dicken’s classic Global Shift is a good complement to this analysis.

Some further notes on the event. It was well-attended though it’s out of term-term and exams are looming. A lot of lively and intelligent questions from students as well as some of us old(er)-timers with a well-ground axe or two. The discussion took off around sub-Saharan Africa. Was there much to encourage most of the continent? Is industrial policy just wishful thinking for these countries? John Page’s chapter in the book is challenging. Four decades of false starts and lost opportunities are dismissed as follows:  “The state-led, import-substitution strategies of the 1960s and 1970s produced industry without efficiency…The adjustment policies of the 1980s and 1990s, however, produced efficiency without industry”. (p. 258). 

Where next?
Szirmai stressed the encouraging growth rates since 2000 in a number of economies such as Rwanda, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique and Angola.  It is quite clear that both agriculture and industrialization need help in Africa – but can one discern viable pathways? (Of course competing histories of industrialization in Europe also come into play here – did an agricultural revolution drive up productivity per labourer and force rural people (or free them up) to look for work in cities – or were the technological advances in agriculture and industry always linked in a more synergistic way?). Young Africans, it is frequently reported, do not want to stay on the farm. Nor would I – but what are the prospects in the cities? Controversial proposals need to be addressed – should African countries take advantage of their low labour costs and compete with East Asia – and forget any idea of a minimum wage? China is already using Cambodia and Vietnam in this way. Can Africa corner the cheap labour end of global industrialization – or even carve out part of it.

The chapter by Page criticizes hopes for an agriculture-led industrialization strategy – although it is clear that the sector cannot be neglected. As Naude and Szirmai state, he notes that “agro-processing offers new opportunities to poor African countries, even though global standards and product quality requirements create new challenges and difficulties” (p. 420-1).

Naude was more pessimistic than Szirmai at the LSE session because of the obstacles to African development. The African challenges are of course dramatically exacerbated by climate change – as agricultural production is so vulnerable. For example, he mentioned that dependence on modified seeds and chemical fertilizers increase the financial risks for African farmers. He also gave us the bizarre story TRIPS story of the evening – a foreign multinational trying to claim the intellectual property and patent Rooibos tea- sounds like a rural myth, but here we are….What chance to do African producers stand in a world like this?

Another clear message was: don’t take the Asians as a blueprint – Hobday argues that learning from Asia’s success requires rejection of a follow-the-leader, catch-up model. “One of the insights to be gained from each of the Asian nations is the importance of identifying and building a distinctive path of development, supported by policies that encourage these paths. “ (pp. 151-2). The editors cite Lin and Chang with approval (p.20) in arguing that countries must be allowed the right to choose their own paths – using S. Korea, Japan and Finland as examples. (Of course, there is a down side to this – those seeking to buck trends and find their own path can easily get lost for a decade or two). Harry Wu’s chapter argues that a proper understanding of China’s success needs to take account of over a century of industrialization – and that stop-go policies actually hindered progress. (p 155 ff). One fascinating innovative theme in the book is the impact on waste scavenging in developing countries in supplying Chinese industrialization (Martin Medina pp. 325 ff.)

Weiss outlines five challenges  for the future:
  • Financial sector reform
  • Breaking into global production networks
  • Facing competition from the reemerging giants
  • Addressing climate change
  • Avoiding jobless growth.
Justin Yifu Lin – a more recent Chief Economist at the World Bank has given the book a ringing (and justified) endorsement:
“No country has been able to move successfully from a low –income agrarian economy to a high income service-oriented economy without its government’s proactive use of industrial policy to facilitate the economic transformation. However, industrial policies failed in most countries in the past. This book makes an invaluable contribution to the emerging literature on rethinking industrial policy.…. I highly recommend  any student and practitioner interested in poverty reduction and sustained growth in developing countries to read this book.”
This is exactly right. No blog can do a serious book like this justice – you have to get it and engage with it – now that you cannot benefit from the stellar line-up we enjoyed in the LSE’s fine New Academic Building.
So, I expect the book to appear on many reading lists, and it should be in university libraries. I also suggest that George Osborne should get a copy – the powerful chapter by Fiona Tregenna on how difficult it is to reverse de-industrialization is not just relevant to poor economies (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa). The challenge of “premature de-industrialisation is particularly acute – recovering from this arrested form of development may well prove more difficult than the initial industrialization” (see pp. 97 ff) I am sure he can even find someone clever from the Treasury to help him with the mathematical model on the technical details of decomposition …..

Professor Putzel exercised a “self-denying ordinance” and did not make the classic mistake of the Chair – that of engaging the panel in his own discussion when the audience were itching to get in on the act. Quite the contrary – he held back and we had to wait to the very end for his substantive contribution. He warned us not to assume that the battle is now won because a great book has appeared, and also to understand that there are real issues which divide experts in the field. Even if the field is now open for serious discussion of industrial policy, there is deep division on how “latent” comparative advantage should be interpreted. There are those who insist that governments should promote industry in line with comparative advantage – thus sticking fairly closely to the economic liberalism of the past three decades, and – on the other hand – those who argue that governments must work actively toward transforming their country’s comparative advantage.
At the end of the session, with due thanks to all concerned, Professor Putzel invited us up to the top floor of the New Academic Building, where the drinks reception enabled us to talk further and survey the London skyline. I noted what big buildings financial services can finance. And I hope that more of the money goes into financing production in the real economy than once more  being money speculating on money.  So we finished the evening with the view across the City towards Canary Wharf in perhaps the best room in London to remember LSE professor Susan Strange’s early warning – 25 years ago - on Casino Capitalism.

Monday, 15 April 2013

Watch: Al Jazeera’s report on the new Hunger and Nutrition Commitment Index

Al Jazeera’s Inside Story programme reports on IDS’s new Hunger and Nutrition Commitment Index (HANCI). Research findings from HANCI show that low income countries like Malawi and Madagascar and lower middle income Guatemala, are leading the charge against hunger and undernutrition. However, economic powerhouses such as India and Nigeria are failing some of their most vulnerable citizens. Inside Story asks whether booming Global South economies are doing enough to alleviate the suffering of the downtrodden.
IDS research fellow Dolf te Lintelo is featured in the programme.

Wednesday, 27 March 2013

Pope of the Poor – An Impossible Dream ?

by Roger Williamson

The new Pope says he wants a “poor church, for the poor”.  Will he get it? The old saying comes to mind “be careful what you wish for….” 

For those committed to improving the lot of the poor, marginalized and vulnerable and also to development specialists and practitioners (not necessarily the same thing, I know), this is an important question. Development specialists are waking up to the importance of faith communities – but understanding them is a really complex challenge. Speaking as a practising Christian, I have to say that in terms of social involvement, religious organisations need very careful study – much of the record is destructive, alienating and problematic – but at its best faith commitment can lead to an identification  with the poor which is very profound and positive. None of the simple answers are adequate ( e.g. “religion =  wonderful/ the real thing”; “religion = alienating, oppressive, bad” or Alistair Campbell’s spin doctor comment on Tony Blair’s administration – “We don’t do God”). Any serious social scientist has to “do religion”  - there are a lot of religious believers. You have to take them seriously, but not believe everything they say. So let’s take the Pope seriously and see what he is saying on behalf of his flock of one billion plus.

Former President of the World Bank James Wolfensohn and former Archbishop of Canterbury, George Carey,  launched an initiative (the World Faiths Development Dialogue) on this subject 15 years ago – I remember being involved in the planning process.

Wolfensohn correctly argued that there is a place of worship in practically every village on the planet, and that if religious organisations could consistently advocate development at every level, huge progress could be made.

In many religions, parts of the tradition have a positive evaluation of voluntary poverty and generosity towards the poor. But, as Asian Catholic theologian Aloysius Pieris points out in An Asian Theology of Liberation (Orbis, Maryknoll 1988), there is all the difference in the world between voluntary poverty and enforced poverty.  He stresses that a large percentage of the population of Asia are religious and poor, and argues that they should be freed from enforced poverty. He looks for an interfaith (Buddhist, Hindu, Christian, etc.) alliance of people of faith who choose poverty and reject acquisitiveness, in order to oppose the structures in society which create enforced poverty and suffering.

So what could it mean if the Pope is serious?  I suggest three criteria for whether he means it.

Personal integrity from the top.
The complicity of much of the leadership of the Argentine Catholic church with the successive military juntas in Argentina is well documented. (See Emilio F Mignone, Witness to the Truth : The Complicity of Church and Dictatorship in Argentina Orbis, Maryknoll, 1986.) There are allegations that the new Pope (as head of the Jesuits in Argentina ) and Cardinal Arumburu effectively  withdrew church protection from two Jesuits who were working in the slums of Buenos Aires – they were subsequently taken by the military and held for months in inhumane  conditions, and badly mistreated. (See also  Tony Allen-Mills and John Pollain, “Man on a Mission” Sunday Times, 17.03.13 pp. 23-5) The Vatican has waved away questions by saying these are old questions. That’s not the point – the issue is what actually happened? Are the well documented and long-standing allegations true? I can well understand being scared of the Argentine military. To have someone who betrayed his colleagues as a church leader is not in itself the problem (if that is what he did) – Peter denied Christ. So to have someone who failed and is restored to a position of trust could be a sign of hope for the throne of St Peter. But the Pope has to come clean about the Dirty War and his role in it – the leadership of the Catholic church in Argentina  (with a few brave exceptions ) either kept quiet or offered ideological support as thirty thousand people were tortured, disappeared, killed and thrown out of helicopters into the River Plate. It is not enough to know whether the new Pope is a man who cooked his own meals and refused to use the Cardinal’s residence. We need to know what he and his church did in the Dirty War.

Beyond charity
Catholics give huge amounts of money to charitable organizations – much of it for poorer parts of the Catholic Church as emergency response, famine relief, and other charitable causes. But we have also had the unedifying spectacle of the Vatican lining up with Iran and a conservative US administration at the 1994 UN Population Conference because of its position on birth control.

There are also many progressive Catholic organisations – even at high level in the Catholic Church (like Justice and Peace). In the UK CAFOD, the development agency of the Bishops’ Conference, has gone well beyond charity and emergency relief, to work for long-term development. 

Commitment to justice for the poor

The advocates of a socially-engaged Catholicism provide many inspiring examples in recent decades, exemplified by:
  • liberation theology and the protests against military dictatorship in Latin America,
  • opposition to the murderous civil wars in Central America (the murdered Jesuit academic Ignacio Ellacuria talked of “crucified peoples” )
  • and opposition to apartheid in South Africa ( eg  the Kairos Document) or
  • and mobilization against repression in the Philippines under Marcos – where nuns and lay people were particularly active.
As a Brazilian activist said, if you don’t have structural change, you end up with “different parrots at the top of the same trees”.  

This week marks the 33rd anniversary of the murder of Archbishop Romero of El Salvador, gunned down while saying Mass. His conversion by the poor people of his country led him to make some extraordinary statements indicating the depth of his commitment: “Brothers and sisters, I’m glad that the Church is being persecuted. In a country where so many horrendous murders are occurring, it would be very sad to think that there were no priests among the victims. Their deaths are a symbol that the Church has incarnated itself among the poor.” (See Oscar Romero: Memories in Mosaic p. 9).

Archbishop Romero, in one of his last lectures (at the University of Leuven) radicalized the statement of the early church theologian St  Irenaeus (2nd century) “gloria dei homo vivens” (the living human being is the glory of God) by making it “gloria dei  pauper vivens” – the living poor person is the glory of God.
Jon Sobrino was the one survivor of his Jesuit community in El Salvador in 1989 – he was abroad when his fellow Jesuits, their housekeeper and her young daughter were massacred. He was a close theological associate of Romero and has said – “the poor are those who are close to death.”

So “Church of the poor” – does the new Pope mean it?
The Roman Catholic Church did have a Church of the Poor, most obviously in Latin America in the 1970s and 1980s. The Pope’s two predecessors did their best to dismantle it by censuring or silencing priests and theologians who worked out the full implications of solidarity with the poor and oppressed, by making difficulties for bishops who reformed their dioceses in service of the poor, for example by breaking up the Archdiocese of Cardinal Paulo Evaristo Arns  in Sao Paulo. A word about Arns - when I visited the Archbishop’s Palace in 1983, human rights groups were protected by being housed there; he ensured that the funeral of one secular, leftist Jewish  journalist was held in the cathedral and accused the military by saying that the people who killed Vladimir Herzog were worse than the executioners of Jesus – who at least gave the body back.

Pope John Paul II and Cardinal Ratzinger (his successor Pope Benedict) have sought to ensure through appointment of conservative bishops and rigorous ideological policing of liberation theology that the next generation of church leaders would be more conservative and compliant.

Dutch sociologist Mady Thung has written of the church as a “precarious institution”. However, the biblical record, the life and death of Jesus and parts of the Christian tradition contain many subversive memories which resurface and serve as the stimulus for the church as a movement of the poor. At the same time, particularly since the collusion between the church and the Roman empire solidified and gave us the established church. Major churches as institutions have always tended to compromise with, or actively support, the powerful.

There was a significant movement of the “the church of the poor” in Latin and Central America – as documented by Penny Lernoux in her book  Cry of the People. Hundreds of its members were murdered by military dictatorships for their stand on social justice and their defence of poor people.

As Jesus said, it is as hard for a rich person to enter the kingdom of heaven as for a camel to go through the eye of a needle.  If it is that hard for one rich person – how hard would it be for a church of over a billion people?

So – the big question remains: taking the name Francis - after the poor man, St Francis of Assisi, is an exercise in “rebranding the papacy”. Does it mean an end to secrecy, collusion with power, cover ups and corruption? Does the new Pope really mean it? will the Vatican now be committed to the defence of the poorest people on the planet? First, let’s hear the full truth about the Pope’s  role in the Dirty War, then let’s see some tangible evidence of commitment to the poor – not as charity, but as justice. There are many in the Catholic Church who want it. That is the Christian tradition of Romero, Ita Ford, Ellacuria, the housekeeper of the six Jesuits murdered , the unknown peasants repressed in the 1970s and 1980s – and that is just a short list for El Salvador.

Following Jesus in being on the side of the poor sets you against rich, powerful and dangerous people and can get you killed. For the true church of the poor that is not an argument to stop.
The church of the poor should defend the poor and dismantle the structures which make and keep people poor. If that is what the Pope means – excellent. An institution of a billion people (many of them poor, many already committed) working on that agenda  will make a big difference. If it is not what he  means, then it is just “re-branding” in the worst possible sense.

Pope Francis, human rights and the church of the poor: an addendum
Since writing the piece above, I have made every effort to discover more on the record of the Pope and the Argentine Catholic Church on human rights under the Argentine military dictatorship. This has caused me to feel the need to add to the above account.

In summary, the following are my conclusions:
In the early coverage of appointment of Pope Francis, there was considerable comment on the case of two Jesuit priests working in the slums of Buenos Aires who were captured by the military, then tortured and eventually released after five months imprisonment in 1976. The two priests (Fr Yorio and Fr Jalics) were, in all likelihood, taken because of their association with Monica Quinteiro, a catechist who has been described as a sympathizer of the Montoneros. The military junta which took over in 1976 quickly engaged in a massive effort to round up anyone who was involved in the Monteneros  and ERP guerrilla movements. In order to ensure that they captured as many as possible of movements’ leaders, they also picked up and “disappeared” many who knew those in the movements,  who had no direct personal involvement, who were “friends of friends”, who were involved in social work in the slums, or who were cases of “mistaken identity”.

For anyone not living through that terror, it is hard to imagine what it was like for those involved and for those trying to help them. Iain Guest in his 1990 book on the disappeared writes about the group of friends including Monica Quinteiro, Monica Mignone and others who knew the priests and worked with them in their church activities. In total, seven young women in that group were abducted and never released.(Guest, pp. 34 ff.)

Monica Mignone’s father, Emilio, wrote an early (1986), critical book on the Catholic church and human rights. He was subsequently active in the human rights movement and was president of CELS, the Centre for Legal and Social Studies. He comments on the case of the priests, the alleged withdrawal of church protection for them after they were told  to discontinue their work in the slum as well as their connection with his daughter and Monica Quinteiro in his book, Witness to the Truth 98, 134, 148

The priests were held in the notorious ESMA, a training centre of the Argentine navy. There has been a long-standing effort to prosecute the naval officers involved in the abductions, torture and murders – of whom perhaps the most notorious is Alfredo Astiz – found guilty for the murder of, among others, two French nuns, Alice Domon and Leonie Duquet and sentenced to life imprisonment in 2011. Ultimately the chain of command went up to Admiral Massera –  the head of the navy and one of the original Junta leaders, with whom Bergoglio interceded on behalf of Yorio and Jalics. There are two recent statements by Fr Jalics on the website of the German Jesuits which make it clear that he does not think that Bergoglio was responsible for them being taken by the military. Although he was critical of his superior (Bergoglio) at the time, he is now fully reconciled to what transpired. Yorio is deceased, but members of his family remain critical.

The Pope’s official biographer Sergio Rubin details other cases in which Bergoglio intervened to save or protect people in danger in his book El Jesuita.  There is a huge volume of comment on these issues which can be accessed on line, including film parts of Borgoglio’s testimony in the 2010 hearings in the ESMA case. Thus, in spite of the difficult earlier pastoral relationship with Yorio and Jalics, Bergoglio intervened at high level (with Junta leaders Videla and Massera) and was eventually successful in getting the priests released.

The story of the silence and/or complicity of the majority of the Catholic hierarchy during the time of the military dictatorship would merit a full and careful study. Much of the information has emerged, piece by piece, through the work of the human rights organisations, the national commission on the disappeared and the various trials and attempts at trials over the past three decades. According to Mignone, only four Bishops publicly protested, at great personal risk – Bishop Angelelli of La Rioja (who was killed in what was made to look like a car accident), Jaime de Nevares of Neuquen, Miguel Hesayne of Vielma and Jorge Novak of Quilmes. In contrast, “Bishop Tortolo and Cardinals Aramburu and Primatesta, who in 1976 made up the Executive Commission of the bishops’ conference, closed their doors to the victims’ families; only in rare cases did they meet with them.” Mignone, pp 19-20.

It is also necessary to be aware that there are serious divergences of view in the human rights movement.  It is understandable that people who have lost relatives – perhaps particularly in the cases where women killed and their babies given to other families are particularly harsh in their judgments and feel that more could and should have been done by the church and other organisations.

It is a consistent account that Bergoglio used possibilities which he had to intervene behind the scenes and is still reluctant to talk about this – the exceptions so far have been his testimony in the trial (2010) and his interview for the official biography.  Where then does the critique come from?  Initially the priests (Yorio and Jalics) themselves, then Mignone who met Yorio immediately on his release to try to find out about his daughter and her friends, then, more recently and in more vehement form by Horacio Verbitsky, author of a book El Silencio (The Silence) on the relations of the church with ESMA, and other examinations of the human rights abuses. Various versions of his thesis – in longer or shorter form – have been presented in the media.  His writings and interviews are the source of much of the most negative criticisms of Bergoglio. He article by Buchet gives a judicious evaluation of these accusations and has been helpful in analyzing the internal political context of the critique of Bergoglio – as emanating primarily from  allies of President Kirchner.

The new Pope is conservative on doctrine and sexual issues, but with a strong social conscience. According to Rubin, he has a genuine concern for the poor, but is not an advocate of liberation theology. He has had major confrontations with the current Kirchner government on social policy, but the Argentine president has been quick to seek a rapprochement with him on his elevation to the Papacy.

Obviously, had I known then what I know now, I would have written my original piece in a different way. I have chosen to redress the matter in this way, rather than simply withdrawing the piece. This serves as a salutary warning both about the ideologically polarized nature of Argentine political discussion, and also how information primarily from one source (i.e. Verbitsky) - effectively deployed - can still exercise an excessive influence on interpretations of news stories.

In spite of the problems with what I wrote and its (it now seems to me) unfair comments on the role of the Pope, the central points remain
  • The Argentine Roman Catholic Church – with certain notable exceptions, fell well short, through complicity and silence, of what should have happened in defence of human rights.
  • Pope Benedict, at the 1999 meeting of the Latin American Bishops’ conferences, CELAM , announced the death of liberation theology. The collapse of communism “turned out to be a kind of twilight of the gods for that theology of redeeming political practice” (Linden p. 152.) Linden’s own reading of the preferential option for the poor and the structural challenge it implies is different. His hopeful conclusion is as follows: “News of the death of liberation theology was greatly exaggerated. Liberation theology was disposable, not an end in itself. The preferential option for the poor and its redeeming-pastoral practice were not. These had long since entered the bloodstream of the Church and migrated around the world … The life of the Church in Latin America, and arguably the universal Church, had been irrevocably changed.” ( p. 152-3)  
  • A huge amount is at stake – the promise of a church of the poor is inspirational. Even in a less ideologically charged environment (post-Cold War) it will not prove easy.  Given the polarized national context from which the Pope has emerged, and given the difficulty of thoroughly reforming Catholic church (as Catholics as different as Martin Luther and Pope John XXIIII – the architect of Vatican II – have discovered), time will tell.  One should be encouraged by the initially positive, though not starry-eyed,  evaluations of figures such as Nobel Prize winner Adolfo Perez Esquivel,, the Jesuit Jon Sobrino – who worked closely with Archbishop Romero and Brazilian liberation theologian, Leonardo Boff. It is too early to say whether the Pope will succeed in re-orienting the Catholic church  to be a church of the poor and whether the name of St Francis has been rightly invoked as the hallmark of this Papacy.  Or, as Jesus said – “by their fruits will you know them.”
Resources

For further reading
  • Tina Beattie, Eve’s Pilgrimage: A Woman’s Quest for the City of God, Burns and Oates, London and New York, 2002 – critical history of the history and theology of the Roman Catholic Church by a feminist theologian
  • Leonardo Boff, Good News to the Poor, Burns and Oates, London, 1992 – one of the Brazilian theologians who has had trouble with the Vatican
  • Penny Lernoux,  Cry of the People, Penguin, London, 1982 – detailed history of the work of the Catholic church in Latin America with the poor and in support of human rights
  • Ian Linden, Global Catholicism: Diversity and Change since Vatican II, Hurst & Co, London, 2009 – excellent overview.
  • Emilio Mignone, Witness to the Truth: The Complicity of Church and Military Dictatorship in Argentina, Orbis, Maryknoll, 1988 – examination of the Church and the “Dirty War”
  • Albert Nolan, Jesus before Christianity, Orbis, Maryknoll, 1978 – South African Dominican monk, who has also written God in South Africa and helped to coordinate and write the Kairos document mobilizing the churches against apartheid.
  • Aloysius Pieris, An Asian Theology of Liberation. Orbis, Maryknoll, 1988 – Sri Lankan Jesuit writing from an Asian interfaith perspective
  • Tracey Rowland, Ratzinger’s Faith: The Theology of Pope Benedict XVI , Oxford University Press, 2008 – a careful study of Ratzinger’s theology
  • Julio de Santa Ana, Good News to the Poor, Separation without Hope, Towards a Church of the Poor, World Council of Churches , Geneva, 1977, 78, 79 (3 volumes) – three studies on the Biblical basis for the church of the poor, historical examples and the implications.
  • Jon Sobrino, The True Church and the Poor, SCM, London, 1985 – the one survivor of the massacre of the Jesuits in El Salvador.
  • Maria Lopez Vigil,  Oscar Romero, Memories in Mosaic, EPICA, CAFOD, Darton, Longman and Todd, 2000 – a full study of people who knew Romero
  • Derek Winter, Hope in Captivity: The Prophetic Church in Latin America, Epworth, 1977 – a profile of the leading figures in liberation theology. The book was too interesting and well written to submit as post-graduate thesis.